Preventing Urban Conflict

James Cockayne, Louise Bosetti, & Nazia Hussain, A Thematic Paper for the United Nations-World Bank Study on Conflict Prevention, United Nations University Center for Policy Research, 2017.

The future of violent conflict is urban – because the future of humanity is urban. If we want to prevent future violent conflict, we must prevent violent urban conflict. This paper starts with an overview of urbanization trends and what is known about how these relate to risks of large-scale violence, identifying factors relating to demography, horizontal inequality. The relationship between urban violence and urban conflict governance as particularly significant. Next, we look at three obstacles to adapting ‘conflict prevention’ theory and practice to account for these insights: a) conceptual; b) data-related; c) capability- and mandate-related. Finally, we reflect on what forms the prevention of violent urban conflict might take, if these obstacles were addressed.