Do water crises have the potential to contribute to social and political unrest in cities, especially in the Global South? To address this question, this paper draws on 60 interviews, 8 focus group discussions and a survey of 800 urban poor households in Metro Manila. Analysis suggests that access to water for these households is rife with vulnerability. In other words, scarcity is not natural as much as produced through economic and political decisions. These pre-existing entitlements determine the scale of suffering during times of water crises. In 2019, as the entire population of Metro Manila experienced a water crisis, urban poor households suffered disproportionately. While people coped individually by altering their behavior, discontent was palpable among communities, highlighting that individual grievances were at the cusp of entering the social realm. This analysis is supported by discussions in political ecology, contentious politics, and governance and informality in cities in the Global South.

As more people move to cities, they do so at a time when concerns of resource scarcity, especially of water, abound. By 2050, at least 6 out of 10 people will be living in cities (UN-ESA 2014), increasing the demand for water by 50-70 percent (Lundqvist, Appasamy & Nelliyat 2003). Although these concerns are not new, they have gained an urgency in a time of environmental stresses and water crises; one fourth of cities in the world already face water shortages (McDonald et al. 2014). For some cities in the Global South where criminal and political violence and service provision through multiple players shapes daily experiences, these questions become doubly important. How will depleting water interact with dynamics of governance and politics? Will it lead to political instability, or worse, conflict?